Global internet search trends related to gastrointestinal symptoms predict regional COVID-19 outbreaks.

BACKGROUND: Real-time surveillance of search behavior on the internet has achieved accessibility in measuring disease activity. In this study, we systematically assessed the associations between internet search trends of gastrointestinal (GI) symptom terms and daily newly confirmed COVID-19 cases at both global and regional levels. METHODS: Relative search volumes (RSVs) of GI symptom terms were derived from internet search engines. Time-series analyses with autoregressive integrated moving average models were conducted to fit and forecast the RSV trends of each GI symptom term before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Generalized additive models were used to quantify the effects of RSVs of GI symptom terms on the incidence of COVID-19. In addition, dose-response analyses were applied to estimate the shape of the associations. RESULTS: The RSVs of GI symptom terms could be characterized by seasonal variation and a high correlation with symptoms of "fever" and "cough" at both global and regional levels; in particular, "diarrhea" and "loss of taste" were abnormally increased during the outbreak period of COVID-19, with elevated point changes of 1.31 and 8 times, respectively. In addition, these symptom terms could effectively predict a COVID-19 outbreak in advance, underlying the lag correlation at 12 and 5 days, respectively, and with mutual independence. The dose-response curves showed a consistent increase in daily COVID-19 risk with increasing search volumes of "diarrhea" and "loss of taste". CONCLUSION: This is the first and largest epidemiologic study that comprehensively revealed the advanced prediction of COVID-19 outbreaks at both global and regional levels via GI symptom indicators.

Integrative omics provide biological and clinical insights into acute respiratory distress syndrome.

PURPOSE: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is accompanied by a dysfunctional immune-inflammatory response following lung injury, including during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Limited causal biomarkers exist for ARDS development. We sought to identify novel genetic susceptibility targets for ARDS to focus further investigation on their biological mechanism and therapeutic potential. METHODS: Meta-analyses of ARDS genome-wide association studies were performed with 1250 cases and 1583 controls in Europeans, and 387 cases and 387 controls in African Americans. The functionality of novel loci was determined in silico using multiple omics approaches. The causality of 114 factors potentially involved in ARDS development was assessed using Mendelian Randomization analysis. RESULTS: There was distinct genetic heterogeneity in ARDS between Europeans and African Americans. rs7967111 at 12p13.2 was functionally associated with ARDS susceptibility in Europeans (odds ratio = 1.38; P = 2.15 × 10-8). Expression of two genes annotated at this locus, BORCS5 and DUSP16, was dynamic but ultimately decreased during ARDS development, as well as downregulated in immune cells alongside COVID-19 severity. Causal inference implied that comorbidity of inflammatory bowel disease and elevated levels of C-reactive protein and interleukin-10 causally increased ARDS risk, while vitamin D supplementation and vasodilator use ameliorated risk. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest a novel susceptibility locus in ARDS pathophysiology that implicates BORCS5 and DUSP16 as potentially acting in immune-inflammatory processes. This locus warrants further investigation to inform the development of therapeutic targets and clinical care strategies for ARDS, including those induced by COVID-19.

Effects of Coronavirus Persistence on the Genome Structure and Subsequent Gene Expression, Pathogenicity and Adaptation Capability.

Coronaviruses are able to establish persistence. However, how coronaviruses react to persistence and whether the selected viruses have altered their characteristics remain unclear. In this study, we found that the persistent infection of bovine coronavirus (BCoV), which is in the same genus as SARS-COV-2, led to alterations of genome structure, attenuation of gene expression, and the synthesis of subgenomic mRNA (sgmRNA) with a previously unidentified pattern. Subsequent analyses revealed that the altered genome structures were associated with the attenuation of gene expression. In addition, the genome structure at the 5' terminus and the cellular environment during the persistence were responsible for the sgmRNA synthesis, solving the previously unanswered question regarding the selection of transcription regulatory sequence for synthesis of BCoV sgmRNA 12.7. Although the BCoV variants (BCoV-p95) selected under the persistence replicated efficiently in cells without persistent infection, its pathogenicity was still lower than that of wild-type (wt) BCoV. Furthermore, in comparison with wt BCoV, the variant BCoV-p95 was not able to efficiently adapt to the challenges of alternative environments, suggesting wt BCoV is genetically robust. We anticipate that the findings derived from this fundamental research can contribute to the disease control and treatments against coronavirus infection including SARS-CoV-2.

The Impacts of Antivirals on the Coronavirus Genome Structure and Subsequent Pathogenicity, Virus Fitness and Antiviral Design.

With the global threat of SARS-CoV-2, much effort has been focused on treatment and disease control. However, how coronaviruses react to the treatments and whether the surviving viruses have altered their characteristics are also unanswered questions with medical importance. To this end, bovine coronavirus (BCoV), which is in the same genus as SARS-CoV-2, was used as a test model and the findings were as follows. With the treatment of antiviral remdesivir, the selected BCoV variant with an altered genome structure developed resistance, but its pathogenicity was not increased in comparison to that of wild type (wt) BCoV. Under the selection pressure of innate immunity, the genome structure was also altered; however, neither resistance developed nor pathogenicity increased for the selected BCoV variant. Furthermore, both selected BCoV variants showed a better efficiency in adapting to alternative host cells than wt BCoV. In addition, the previously unidentified feature that the spike protein was a common target for mutations under different antiviral treatments might pose a problem for vaccine development because spike protein is a common target for antibody and vaccine designs. The findings derived from this fundamental research may contribute to the disease control and treatments against coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2.